UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG  
Quantitative Research Methods  
GROUP WEBSITE  
The Effects of Education, Income, and Gender on Fertility Intention in China “  
Chinas fertility rate has experienced a dramatic decline over the past few decades.  
Today, China ranks among the countries with the lowest fertility levels in the world,  
and its population began to shrink in 2022. Although the government has  
introduced a series of pronatalist policiessuch as the relaxation of the one-child  
policy and the rollout of the two-childand three-childpoliciestheir effects have  
been limited.  
Using data from the 2021 wave of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), our  
study investigates how education, income, and other demographic factors shape  
individualsfertility intentions in China. Our findings may offer meaningful insights  
into Chinas emerging demographic challenges.  
Chinas fertility rates  
Fertility Intention in China  
Education  
Among our sample of more than 6,000 respondents, nearly 70% (specifically 68%)  
reported a preferred family size of one to two children. This aligns with Chinas  
demographic reality, where fertility levels remain far below the replacement rate of 2.1.  
Demographic theories have long emphasized education as a critical driver of fertility  
decline. Our results support this classical proposition: as individuals attain more years  
of schooling, their willingness to have children decreases.  
At the same time, we observe notable variation: around 14% of respondents expressed no  
intention to have children, while 18% hoped to have three or more. This diversity reveals  
significant heterogeneity in fertility preferences among the Chinese population.  
This pattern is closely tied to China’s massive educational transformation. Over the past  
two decades, China has undergone one of the world’s fastest expansions of higher  
education. College enrollment rates jumped from less than 10% in the late 1990s to  
over 60% in the 2020s.  
Higher education has reshaped young people’s aspirations, career trajectories, and  
lifestyle choices—factors that collectively contribute to lower fertility intentions.  
Income  
A similar negative relationship exists between income and fertility intention. Although  
rising income theoretically increases the resources available for raising children,  
empirical evidence—especially from East Asia—suggests that high-income groups often  
have lower, not higher, fertility.  
We then examined the impact of key social and economic factors on fertility intention. For  
clarity, the results displayed focus on the coefficients only. One striking finding is that  
both education and income are negatively associated with fertility intention.  
China’s rapid economic growth over the past forty years has greatly increased  
household income, but it has also intensified the financial burden associated with  
raising children. In a context where educational achievement is heavily emphasized,  
childrearing costs have soared.  
Recent estimates suggest that raising a child to age 18 now costs nearly seven times  
China’s per capita GDP, a figure dramtically higher than in many developed countries.  
Unsurprisingly, many families feel unable to support multiple children, leading to  
declining fertility intentions.  
For higher-income women, the opportunity cost of childbearing is especially high.  
Pregnancy, childbirth, and early childcare require substantial time, often coinciding with  
crucial stages of career advancement. The fear of stalled professional growth remains a  
major deterrent for many working women.  
Gender and Marriage  
Gender differences also emerge clearly in our results. Men display lower fertility  
intentions than women. This may be linked to China’s traditional family model,  
where men are typically viewed as the main economic providers. The pressure to  
secure stable income and housing can dampen men’s willingness to expand their  
families.  
Hukou (Household Registration System)  
Hukou, a uniquely Chinese institutional arrangement, also plays  
an important role. Numerous studies have shown that rural and  
urban residents follow different fertility patterns. Our findings  
are consistent with this: respondents with an urban hukou  
reported significantly lower fertility intentions.  
Marriage, unsurprisingly, has a strong positive effect on fertility intention, and  
this effect is particularly pronounced among men. This reflects a distinctive  
cultural norm in China—childbearing is closely tied to marriage, and having  
children outside of marriage remains socially uncommon.  
This is likely due to the high cost of living and intense  
competition in urban environments, which magnify the  
pressures associated with raising children.  
Conclusion  
Our study highlights the complex, multidimensional factors shaping fertility  
intentions in contemporary China. The challenge cannot be addressed through  
single, short-term policy interventions. Instead, tackling China’s low fertility  
requires comprehensive, structural reforms that make family formation more  
compatible with individual aspirations.  
Policies such as mandatory and extended paternity leave, affordable and  
accessible childcare, and targeted housing support for young families could help  
reduce the tension between career development and childrearing. Only through  
systemic and sustained efforts can China hope to rebuild an environment in  
which family life becomes a realistic and attractive choice for younger  
generations.  
Source:  
srsltid=AfmBOoqbqL0uuebWvnEql2HGGb06ltrV88mK7cpMVV-SQbay_zScXbGW  
https://download.caixin.com/upload/shengyubaogao2022.pdf