Fertility Intention in China
Education
Among our sample of more than 6,000 respondents, nearly 70% (specifically 68%)
reported a preferred family size of one to two children. This aligns with China’s
demographic reality, where fertility levels remain far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Demographic theories have long emphasized education as a critical driver of fertility
decline. Our results support this classical proposition: as individuals attain more years
of schooling, their willingness to have children decreases.
At the same time, we observe notable variation: around 14% of respondents expressed no
intention to have children, while 18% hoped to have three or more. This diversity reveals
significant heterogeneity in fertility preferences among the Chinese population.
This pattern is closely tied to China’s massive educational transformation. Over the past
two decades, China has undergone one of the world’s fastest expansions of higher
education. College enrollment rates jumped from less than 10% in the late 1990s to
over 60% in the 2020s.
Higher education has reshaped young people’s aspirations, career trajectories, and
lifestyle choices—factors that collectively contribute to lower fertility intentions.
Income
A similar negative relationship exists between income and fertility intention. Although
rising income theoretically increases the resources available for raising children,
empirical evidence—especially from East Asia—suggests that high-income groups often
have lower, not higher, fertility.
We then examined the impact of key social and economic factors on fertility intention. For
clarity, the results displayed focus on the coefficients only. One striking finding is that
both education and income are negatively associated with fertility intention.
China’s rapid economic growth over the past forty years has greatly increased
household income, but it has also intensified the financial burden associated with
raising children. In a context where educational achievement is heavily emphasized,
childrearing costs have soared.
Recent estimates suggest that raising a child to age 18 now costs nearly seven times
China’s per capita GDP, a figure dramtically higher than in many developed countries.
Unsurprisingly, many families feel unable to support multiple children, leading to
declining fertility intentions.
For higher-income women, the opportunity cost of childbearing is especially high.
Pregnancy, childbirth, and early childcare require substantial time, often coinciding with
crucial stages of career advancement. The fear of stalled professional growth remains a
major deterrent for many working women.
